CHAPTER ONE
1.0
INTRODUCTION
Computer
today seems to have capability to do everything that man can do. This means
that computer is able to take over almost all the work done by man. For
instance, in auto-mobile industry, the work of fixing bolts and nuts with
accuracy and speed is performed by robot driven by computer and this is known
as artificial intelligent.
For
researchers like us, there are yet more to be done, more ideas needs to be
fully explore to test the capability of the computer especially in management
service etc.
Management
need information on which to base decision concerning their daily operation and
future plan, hence using computer in forecasting sales therefore comes into
play a very important role. For instance, its ability for timing, decision
making through accepting, makes information readily available for management
when needed.
Generally,
computer is preferred when amount of data for processing is large, when
accuracy is of high consideration and consistence to be relied on, when
processing cycles repeat themselves over and over again, complex calculation
involved, when common data is used and when speed of processing is a factor
etc.
Before
we use a computer for any application, we must find out where it is technically
feasible i.e. can it be with the computer technology currently available? Would
there be use of computer cost effective? And finally, would the use of computer
be socially acceptable? Computer can be applied in three areas such as commercial
application, scientific engineering and research application. The commercial
application cover the use of computer for clerical administration and business
uses in private and public organization.
A
sale forecast is a prediction of a firm’s sales (monetary or unit) during a
given period of time in the future. The forecast consider the expected impact
of uncontrollable environmental factors and conditions within the firm. This
forecasting compels-management to think carefully and systematically about future
periods, especially about the present actions designed to have a favorable
impact upon future result.
1.1
BRIEF HISTORY OF PZ CUSSONS NIGERIA PLC
Paterson
Zochonis Industries Limited now (PZ Cussons Nigeria Plc) is a publicity quoted
company primarily engaged in the manufacture and marketing of soaps,
detergents, health and beauty products, electrical goods and nutritional
products. The company started in 1948 when PZ acquires the soap factory of PB
Nicholas & Co. Ltd.
The
company was incorporated in Nigeria as a private company on the 4th
December 1948 under the name PB Nicholas and Company Limited. Its name was
changed to Alagbon Industries Limited in 1953 and to Associated Industries
Limited in 1960. On 19th July 1972, it was converted to a public
company. The Company was listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange on 18th
February, 1974.
Furthermore,
the company changed its name to Paterson Zochonis Industries Limited on 24th
November, 1976 and in compliance with the companies and Allied Matter Act,
1990, it changed its name to Paterson Zochonis Industries Plc on November 22,
1990 and to PZ Cussons Nigeria Plc on 21st September, 2006. The
company is a subsidiary of PZ Cussons Manchester, UK. The head office of PZ
Cussons Nigeria Plc is located at 45/47 town planning way, Llupeju Industrial
Estate, Ikeja, Lagos.
The
Aba plant of Cussons is located at Margeret Avenue, Eziama, Aba North of Abia
State. The Aba plant specializes in the manufacturing of soap (toilet, laundry
and medicated). Some of the brand here includes Joy, Imperial, Premier, Venus,
Ava, Cussons Baby Range, Nigerian Baby care, Canoe, Duck, Tempo, Robert
Medicated soap, robber and antiseptic soap. The company renders some social
service to its host communities such as employment especially unskilled labour,
provision of food, road, water borehole and free technical education at its
head office in Lagos.
1.2
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
Today,
management requires using Management Information System (MIS) before planning
and decision can be made. Using available and derived information which can be
generated from the available source to estimate the prediction otherwise called
forecasting, such operation require the use of statistical toll on the set of
data to be analyzed. The use of these statistical tools is tedious and becomes
more cumbersome where large amount of data is involved and more prone to
mistakes when done manually.
These problems call for good adequate computer based sales forecasting system, recognizing the capability of this new technology. Our major task therefore lies in developing a system that can handle sale forecasting of PZ Cussons Nigeria Plc, Lagos that is free from the inherent problem besetting the existing system.
1.4
OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY
The
objective of this research is to develop a system that can handle sale
forecasting for accuracy and timely decision making, management needs, and
urgent information for decision making. Using the manual method is time
consuming, more cumbersome and prone error already mentioned where large amount
of data is involved. Hence, the need to advocate the design and implementation
of sales forecasting of PZ Cussons Nigeria Plc, located at 45/47 town planning
way, Llupeju Industrial Estate, Ikeja, Lagos, will make the process of data
easily available at fast speed. Other objectives include:
a.
To make the manufacturing industry works
efficiently in production and marketing of her products.
b.
To ensure prompt and regular allocation
and distribution of the product.
c. To introduce computer based forecasting system for the industry.
1.5
SCOPE OF STUDY
This study will only cover the design and implementation of sale forecasting software within the pz cussons Nigeria plc, which will promote efficient operations of the industry. The study will develop a program to prepare sale forecast, sale reports, sort production for improvement in quality and present report to manager.
1.6
LIMITATION OF STUDY
The
scope is however limited by following constraints;
Time:
The time available for this study is very short and could not allow the
researcher to do much work as expected.
Finance:
The financial resource at the disposal of the researcher is not adequate and
could not allow the project attain its ultimate objective.
Reference Material: The reference materials at the school library could hardly be adequate. The researcher travels far and near to acquire materials and visiting the internet.
1.7
SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY
i.
It is believed that after the study,
industries and organization will find its planning and decision making easy by
implementing a computerized sales forecasting system.
ii.
Beside, the findings of this research,
it will be of immense benefit for the entire industry particularly organization
that are yet to implement computer based forecasting system.
iii.
The advantages of speed and accuracy
couple with its ability to handle large amount of data will be exploited, hence
it enhances high productivity and profit maximization for the company that
implements a computerized sales forecasting system.
iv.
The study will increase the knowledge of
students in the development of software as part of their study and help them
achieve their aims.
v. Future researchers will found this study as a reference for an improved future research endeavor’. This study will also lay a good foundation for the development of a management decision making system using the new computerized sales forecasting system.
1.8
DEFINITION OF TERMS
i.
Computer:
Section 2(1) (i) of the 2000 IT Act defines a computer as any “electronic,
magnetic, optical or other high speed data processing device or system which
perform logical, arithmetic and memory functions by manipulation of electronic,
magnetic or optical implies and, includes all input, output, processing,
storage, computer software or communication facilities which are connected or
related to the computer in a computer system or computer network.
ii.
Software
Packages: These are suits of programs written by specialist
software developer for open sales. Many of them are available for wide range of
function on a variety of computers. Area available include word processing,
spread sheet, accounting packages, data management system, Scientific
Subroutine Package (SSP).
iii.
Planning:
The process of establishing goals and objectives and then determining the
resources and strategy needed is known as planning.
iv.
Management:
According to Njoku and Nwosu (2010) management refers to the process of getting
activities completed efficiently with and through other people.
v.
Software:
This
is a set of instruction that tell the computer what to do and how to do
it. .
vi.
System:
Hase and Bowditch (1977) described a system to be an integrated and
interdependent part such that the interaction or display of any of the sub
system can be seen from various directions. It is a group of integrated
elements with the common purpose of achieving some objective.
vii. Forecasting:
It is the process of making predictions of the future based on past and present
data and analysis of trends. A common place example might be estimation of
“some variable of interest at some specified future date.